In a single number system, students with a good lottery number are more likely to be assigned to their preferred school, but if schools hold separate lotteries, to get their top school, students have to receive a (lower odds) good lottery number at their preferred school. Counterintuitively, the literature shows that using the same number for all schools does not penalize students, instead, it slightly increases their chances of matching to their top choice. In fact, using a single lottery number for all schools is something that the DOE got right. In this post, I will explain how the lottery works using crowdsourced data provided by parents who shared their student’s lottery number, applied school choices, and outcomes, with me through confidential surveys.ĭiscussion on the differences between a single lottery number or one per school. It wasn’t until a parent group launched a campaign asking parents to request their student’s lottery numbers under the Freedom of Information Law (FOIL) - as it turns out you are legally entitled to see any information that is used to decide your child’s admission to public schools, that the DOE relented and agreed to provide the lottery numbers, upon request. In addition, the DOE claimed that the numbers would not give information to families as to their relative chances in their preferred schools, as these chances depend on the choices of other applicants. (Mayor De Blasio’s efforts to improve algorithmic transparency ultimately failed.) The DOE first told parents that the numbers were “truly random,” but could not be shared with families because they consisted of long strings of numbers and letters that they - the families - could not understand. This is all the more surprising given Mayor De Blasio stated commitment to transparency and accountability in the city’s automated decision systems, of which the yearly school admission matching algorithm is a prime example. Incredibly, at first, the DOE declined to provide families with any information on their lottery numbers, or much details about the process. But the widespread use of lotteries this year has raised multiple questions from parents: How are the lottery numbers drawn? Is it possible to see my student’s lottery number? What are the odds of gaining admission to my preferred school? Lotteries are not new in NYC school admissions, the DOE has used them for years for preK and Kindergarten admissions, and to break ties when there are more qualified applicants than seats at a school. This year (2021 admission season), the NYC Department of Education (DOE) moved to a lottery-based approach for admissions to all middle schools and some selective high schools that were previously using academic screens and auditions. Using data crowdsourced from families, I try to shed some light on the process. The NYC Department of Education uses lotteries to assign students to schools but is reluctant to provide much information on how the lottery numbers are drawn, or on the odds of being assigned to various schools. Results for the 2022 admission cycle are published here*** I wrote a follow-up post with updated survey results.*** *** June 2022 Update. Please fill out the survey if you participated in the 2023 HS admissions.*** *** March 2023: The 2023 HS survey is open. Decoding the NYC School Admission Lottery Numbers
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |